The number of grades of certainty adopted for this division of the
experiment is obviously decidedly arbitrary. Grades of certainty there
surely are. The introspection of the subjects develops that clearly,
as has been stated. But there is no reason in the conditions of the
case for holding to the number four, as is done here. In giving the
results for which the experiment was undertaken, I shall, indeed,
confine myself to studying the range of the judgments made with as high
a grade of confidence as the subject believed he should ever have. This
is called certainty (1) or certainty proper. But for the tributary
discussion on the relation of certainty and error, the consideration
of three other grades used in the report and early tabulation, is also
introduced. This lowest grade (4) might better be named "as complete
uncertainty as will admit of one's making any judgment." The other two
are intermediate. It was at first intended to give the results with
regard to the effect of voluntary attention upon the place of these
grades of certainty, also, but such a discussion has been omitted
because it promised to add very little more than complexity to the
report. Besides this, the classification into these lower grades is
too purely approximate to make the distinction there of great value.
For judgments of the order certainty (1) we have the test, "Are you
as certain of this as you can imagine being in an experiment of this
sort?" but no such test for the other grades could be found. Yet,
though he tended to omit judgments of the lower grades of certainty,
each subject seemed to find four grades a convenient number to use in
giving his report.
The number of experiment cards used varied with the subjects. E had so
clear a memory of the cards that after as many as ten had been shown,
he found difficulty in distinguishing his memory of the one which he
had just seen from that of others seen earlier. Ten cards only were
used in his case. A, B, D, and F showed signs of fatigue after fifteen
cards which made the value of any later results questionable. C and K
showed no such signs of fatigue. The same set of cards was, of course,
shown any one subject for all four phases of the experiment. Those
omitted were the last ten or the last five of the complete set as the
case might be.
TABLE I
% of cards where % of cards where % of cards where % of cards where
certainty (1) certainty (1) certainty (1) certainty (1) is
appears in the appears elsewhere in attended-to stronger outside
attended-to than in the group only. than within the
group. attended-to attended-to
group. group.
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