Under a monetary system which maintained prices constant, on the
average, the export or import of gold would be of no more importance
than the export or import of corn or silk.
From an economic standpoint the term _balance of trade_ is a misnomer,
and is misleading. Equally misleading and erroneous is the idea that
gold or silver is in any way necessary to foreign commerce, or that in
consequence of a money being based on one of these metals such trade
will be in any way enhanced.
International trade is an exchange of commodities; not, to be sure,
a direct barter, but an indirect one. One country exports those
commodities which it can produce the cheapest, in exchange for those
of other countries that are either not produced at all in the first
country, or can be produced only at a greater cost than by import. The
immediate force impelling to the export and import of commodities is,
in all cases, a difference in their values in the two countries. This
is no less true of gold than of other commodities, for gold will never
move from one country to another except it be of lower value in the
exporting than in the importing country, no matter how much the one may
be owing the other. The expressions "balance of trade in favour of,"
or "against a country," means only that gold is at that time of higher
value in one than in another country, by an amount above the cost of
shipment, and is being exported or imported because there is a profit
in so doing; but this furnishes no criterion whatever of the prosperity
of a country. It frequently happens that gold moves for a considerable
time from one country to another because of large production of gold
in the exporting country. That cannot be considered a bad condition
of business or unfortunate for the exporting country, unless the
commodities received in exchange are useless, or are wasted. At other
times it frequently happens that a country is importing gold, giving
in exchange not only other commodities, but promises to pay back the
value received, in the shape of bonds and stocks--running in debt, in
fact. This may be a good or a bad thing for the country, as for an
individual, according as the value received is profitably used or not.
It certainly is no sure indication of real prosperity.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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