That free coinage of silver would result in driving gold from the
country has been largely denied by the advocates of that measure. In
this denial they make a great mistake, not only because the statement
is strictly true, as theory and experience in the past have alike
shown, but also because it would accomplish what they are aiming at,
and is the only way in which it can be accomplished through silver
coinage. The increase in the volume of money here would raise prices,
and the flow of gold to other countries would raise their prices also,
and thus a general rise of prices and a lowering of the value of gold,
would result.
The gold-standard advocates have also made an error in supposing
that free silver coinage would result in the _immediate_ fall of our
standard to the present bullion value of the silver dollar.
It would be rather difficult to trace the immediate effects of such a
measure, as several conflicting forces would be brought into play, the
relative strengths of which could not be foretold. It seems probable,
however, that the first effect would be a large rise in the price of
silver bullion, and a hoarding of gold, followed by its export in
exchange for silver. For a time this would cause a fall in prices of
other commodities, followed by a rise, as the new coinage began to fill
the place of the gold hoarded and exported. However this might be, it
can hardly be doubted that the final result would be a rise in prices
of commodities--including silver--as measured in gold, or a fall in the
value of gold all over the world as measured by commodities. Our money
would probably remain at a slight depreciation below our gold standard,
while both together would gradually lower. This condition would be made
manifest by gradually increasing prices, and would continue either
until all the available gold had been exported, or until the rising
value of silver met the falling value of gold at the coinage ratio of
15.98 to 1. Whichever of these results took place would depend on the
relative amounts of gold available for export and of silver for import,
and could hardly be foretold. It seems more than likely, however, that
the gold would all be exported. In this case, the country would have
the silver standard, and the value of the dollar would be somewhat
lower than the value of a gold dollar then, and considerably lower than
the value of a gold dollar now, but also considerably higher than the
bullion value of the silver dollar is now.
If the two dollars reached a parity at their coinage ratio before all
the gold was exported, the country would have not only a bi-metallic
standard, but would practically force such a standard on the rest of
the world, as long at least as the gold supply held out. If foreign
nations returned also to the free coinage of silver, they would either
have to change their ratio to agree with ours, or, if they kept their
present ratio of 15-1/2 to 1, the silver would gradually leave us in
exchange for their gold.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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