The last published report of the Inter-State Commerce Commission, year
1906, furnishes interesting testimony on this subject. A table on page
60 shows that the total railroad capital of the United States for that
year was $14,570,421,478, of which $7,766,661,385, or 53.31 per cent,
was in the form of bonded debt, and the rest in capital stock.
These figures indicate a substantial equity, but are somewhat misleading
because they refer to par value. A fair estimate of the market value of
this stock equity, which is the margin of security in the properties
from the bondholder's point of view, can be obtained from a table on
page 82, which shows a balance available for dividends, after paying all
operating expenses and fixt charges, of all the railroads of the United
States for the year ended June 30, 1906, of $457,060,326. This amount is
equivalent to nearly 7 per cent upon the total par value of the stocks.
Estimating that a railroad stock should earn 10 per cent upon its market
price--and even the most prejudiced will admit that a stock earning 10
per cent is worth par--the total market value of American railroad
stocks would be $4,570,603,260, or more than half the par value of the
bonds. In other words, the bonded debt would represent something less
than 63 per cent of the total market value of the property. This
compares favorably with the security of first mortgages upon real
estate.
When the safety of interest is considered, the showing made is equally
strong. Page 82 of the report above quoted shows that the net income of
the railroads of the United States for the year ended June 30, 1906,
after payment of all operating expenses, was $848,836,771, and the total
fixt charges, including interest on bonds, interest on current
liabilities, and taxes, amounted to $391,776,445, leaving a balance
available for dividends of $457,060,326. It is apparent, therefore, that
the net earnings of the railroads of the United States, considered as
one system, could be cut in half without affecting the payment of
interest upon the railroad's obligations. This affords a large measure
of protection.
The following analysis shows that the actual market value of the
railroads is probably greater than the estimate made above.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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