If the net earnings, after making this allowance for depreciation, and
after providing all expenses of operation including ordinary repairs,
amount to as much as twice the interest charges upon the bonds
outstanding, it is probable that the bonds may be taken with safety.
Before finally determining the question, however, certain political
factors must be taken into consideration. The relations of the company
to the leaders of the dominant political party must be investigated. The
likelihood of agitation looking toward a reduction of fares must be
considered and the possibility of increase in taxes (if below the legal
limit) must be weighed. The probable attitude of the legislature on the
question of renewing the franchises when they expire must be considered.
In general, it must be learned whether any real ground of contention
exists between the company on the one hand and the public and its
representatives on the other, because it is inevitable that the company
will weaken its independence of position by too close a connection with
politics, and that the physical property will suffer if there is any
lack of uninterrupted attention to it.
Finally one other thing should be investigated--the amount of the
accident account and its proportion to the net earnings of the company.
On small lines a single case of heavy damages will sometimes make
serious inroads upon the earnings.
The foregoing is a summary, necessarily brief and imperfect, but true in
its essential outlines, of the main points which should be considered in
judging the safety of street-railway bonds. The question remains, how
far does the average street-railway company satisfy these requirements?
Broadly speaking, street-railway bonds are not yet to be classed in the
first rank of investment securities. The troubles which have come to a
head in the financial operations of the traction systems in New York and
Chicago are typical of troubles which are likely to occur elsewhere from
the same general causes--overcapitalization in the first place and
insufficient allowance for depreciation in the second place. In both New
York and Chicago the crisis was hastened by open and obvious
overcapitalization, which is almost inevitable when many independent
lines are merged into one system. The same trouble, however, is apt to
occur in other traction systems where this evil appeared less flagrant
at the outset.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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