From the general account given above of the successive phases of a
credit cycle, it is possible to summarize the course of interest rates
and the course of business conditions. Money rates become suddenly easy
after a crisis, remain low or grow easier for a period of several years,
and then rise continuously until the next crisis, advancing with great
rapidity toward the close of the cycle. Business conditions remain poor
or grow worse a few years after a crisis. Liquidation is taking place,
prices are going down, and the uncertainty of the outlook causes
diminished activity. Thereafter, however, conditions improve and
activity increases with fair uniformity until it reaches the high
tension of the period immediately preceding the crisis. The course of
interest rates and the course of business conditions may both be
deflected by the operation of special influences, but the general
tendencies are substantially as outlined. The result of the operation of
these joint factors may be traced in the market movements of any class
of security desired. For the sake of simplicity, let us consider their
effect in producing the market swings of the highest grade of investment
issues and of the lowest grade, those which are affected only by money
rates and those which are affected almost wholly by business
conditions.
Emerging from the strain of the crisis at their lowest point, high-grade
bonds, such as the best municipal and railroad issues, advance rapidly
as interest rates decline, continuing their advancing tendency
throughout the period of business depression which follows upon the
heels of the crisis. As business conditions improve, their position,
while perfectly secure before, is further strengthened and an added
stimulus is given to their rise. About the middle of the cycle when the
business outlook is very promising, and before interest rates have
sustained any material advance, the prices of high-grade bonds are
usually at their highest point. From that time forward they commence to
decline, in spite of the increasing prosperity of the country, under the
influence of rising money rates. They make their lowest prices in the
midst of the crisis, when the strain upon capital is greatest and the
outlook for business most unpromising.
The lowest grade of bonds, on the other hand (whose margin of security
is least), do not commence to recover materially in price, in spite of
the influence of low money rates during the hard times which follow the
crisis, the influence of reduced earnings and the fear of default of
interest holding them in check. As the outlook becomes brighter, they
advance rapidly and continue to improve in price so long as they yield
more than current money rates. At some point, difficult to determine in
advance but usually well along toward the end of the cycle, they reach
their high point and thereafter decline under the influence of the
growing stringency in money.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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