Icarus : $b or, The future of science — John Shaqi
Icarus : $b or, The future of scienceRussell, Bertrand
Philosophy
Icarus : $b or, The future of science
Russell, Bertrand
Civilization; Science; Science and state
It remains to say something about the future effects of the
anthropological sciences. This is of course extremely conjectural,
because we do not know what discoveries will be made. The effect
is likely to be far greater than we can now imagine, because these
sciences are still in their infancy. I will, however, take a few points
on which to hang conjectures. I do not wish to be supposed to be
making prophecies: I am only suggesting possibilities which it may be
instructive to consider.
Birth-control is a matter of great importance, particularly in
relation to the possibility of a world-government, which could hardly
be stable if some nations increased their population much more
rapidly than others. At present, birth-control is increasing in all
civilized countries, though in most it is opposed by governments. This
opposition is due partly to mere superstition and desire to conciliate
the Catholic vote, partly to the desire for large armies and severe
competition between wage-earners, so as to keep down wages. In spite
of the opposition of governments, it seems probable that birth-control
will lead to a stationary population in most white nations within the
next fifty years. There can be no security that it will stop with a
stationary population; it may go on to the point where the population
diminishes.
The increase in the practice of birth-control is an example of a
process contrary to that seen in industrialism: it represents a
victory of individual over collective passions. Collectively, Frenchmen
desire that France should be populous, in order to be able to defeat
her enemies in war. Individually, they desire that their own families
should be small, in order to increase the inheritance of their children
and to diminish the expense of education. The individual desire has
triumphed over the collective desire, and even, in many cases, over
religious scruples. In this case, as in most others, the individual
desire is less harmful to the world than the collective desire: the man
who acts from pure selfishness does less damage than the man who is
actuated by “public spirit.” For, since medicine and sanitation have
diminished the infant death-rate, the only checks to over-population
that remain (apart from birth-control) are war and famine. So long
as this continues to be the case, the world must either have a nearly
stationary population, or employ war to produce famine. The latter
method, which is that favoured by opponents of birth-control, has been
adopted on a large scale since 1914; it is however somewhat wasteful.
We require a certain number of cattle and sheep, and we take steps
to secure the right number. If we were as indifferent about them as
we are about human beings, we should produce far too many, and cause
the surplus to die by the slow misery of under-feeding. Farmers would
consider this plan extravagant, and humanitarians would consider it
cruel. But where human beings are concerned, it is considered the only
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