In considering the difference between two European Bank Rates as the
cause of a transfer of funds between the two centres, the cost of
remittance, as measured by the difference between the telegraphic
rate of exchange outwards at the beginning of the transaction and the
telegraphic rate of exchange back at the end of it, is not, of course,
to be neglected. But where the two centres are near together and there
is no reason to anticipate the suspension of a free market in gold,
this cost is, relatively, a minor consideration. The great distance,
however, between London and India makes it in their case a very
significant quantity, and a brief calculation shows that, measured in
terms of Bank Rate, the cost of remittance works out higher, perhaps,
than uninstructed common sense would anticipate. For, under present
conditions, the cost of remittance both ways can hardly be less than
1/16d. per rupee, rising in most years as between certain dates as high
as 5/32d., and reaching occasionally as much as 3/16d. It would not be
prudent to act on the expectation of a less cost than 3/32d. Now 3/32d.
on a rupee is about ·6 per cent. If this loss on exchange (_i.e._ on
remittance) is to be recouped in three months (_i.e._ in a quarter of
a year), an additional rate of nearly 2½ per cent per annum must be
earned in India as compared with the rate in London. If a different
degree of loss in exchange is anticipated, and if the length of time
for which money can be used in India at a high rate is expected to
be more or less than three months, the calculation must be adjusted
accordingly. In any case the reason why the Indian and London Bank
Rates can differ from one another for short periods by large amounts
is adequately explained. If, for example, money can be employed in
India at the high rate for one month only, even if the double cost of
remittance for that period is so low as 1/16d., the difference between
the London and Indian rates must amount to 5 per cent per annum to make
a transfer of funds _prima facie_ profitable.
These illustrations show that what seems a very small fluctuation
in exchange can account for a very wide difference in the rate of
discount; and, apart from questions of unequal knowledge and unequal
security, it is this possibility of fluctuation that makes distinct
markets of the two centres. The underlying explanation is essentially
the same as that of the circumstance to which I called attention in
§ 9 of Chapter II., namely, that a temporary premium of ¾ per cent
on gold in those European countries where gold is not always freely
obtainable, is as effective as a very great increase in the Bank Rate
in preventing the remittance of funds abroad and even in attracting an
inward flow of funds.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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