5. This discussion will have served to make clear a distinction highly
important to the problem of the Indian Bank Rate. When we say that the
Indian Bank Rate is apt to be high, we mean, not that the _average_
effective rate over the whole year is high, but that the _maximum_ rate
in each year, effective for periods of shorter or longer duration, is
generally high. A high average rate and a high maximum rate are likely
to call for different explanations and, if a remedy is sought, for
different kinds of remedies. The available evidence does not suggest
that the average rate in India is at all unduly high for a country
in India’s stage of economic and financial development. Some of the
Exchange Banks, for example, do not find it worth their while to offer
more than 3½ per cent on Indian deposits fixed for a year. It is the
high maximum rate almost invariably reached which calls for enquiry.
The phenomenon under discussion is in no way peculiar to India and
does not arise out of those features of the Indian system which are
characteristic of a Gold–Exchange Standard. We find the same thing in
any country where the demand for funds for financing trade is to a
high degree seasonal and variable in amount throughout the year, and
where, at the same time, these funds have to be remitted from some
far distant foreign centre—in the countries of South America, for
example. In fact, by the establishment of a par of exchange between
the rupee and sterling; the severity of seasonal stringency has been
greatly moderated. The exceptionally high Bank Rates of 1897 and
1898 were partly occasioned by a natural timidity on the part of the
Banks in importing funds at a rate of exchange which at that time was
exceptionally high. The Banks had no guarantee that exchange would
be maintained at or near the existing level, and if they imported
funds they ran the risk of having to bring them home again at a heavy
loss. Under present arrangements the maximum fluctuation in exchange
between the busy season and the slack is known and limited. But while
the stabilisation of the gold value of the rupee has done much for
the Indian Money Market, and has rendered a 12 per cent Bank Rate
most improbable except at a time of wide–spread crisis and panic, it
does not prevent an 8 per cent or even a 9 per cent Bank Rate from
being a comparatively common occurrence. Is it possible to conceive of
any remedy or moderating influence for the somewhat severe seasonal
stringency still experienced?
6. It is clear that a remedy can be sought in one or other of two
ways only. Either the cost of remittance and the maximum range of
fluctuation in exchange must be reduced, or a new source for the
seasonal supply of funds must be found in India herself. I will discuss
these alternatives in turn.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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