Thus it is not easy to find a remedy for high Bank Rate by any method
of diminishing the maximum range of fluctuation in exchange. Indeed
so long as the currency arrangements are at all like those now in
force, this maximum range may fairly be said to be determined by forces
outside Government control, namely, by the forces governing the cost of
remittance of gold. Though the burden of this cost may be shifted, it
cannot be easily avoided altogether.
8. We must fall back, therefore, on the second alternative, the
discovery of a new source for the seasonal supply of funds in India
herself. A proposal, having this object in view, has already been put
forward in more than one passage in the preceding pages. I believe
that, in future, the Government of India may have in the busy season
a considerable stock of rupee funds available in the Paper Currency
Reserve and, occasionally, a surplus stock in the Indian Cash Balances.
If a proper machinery is set up for lending these out in India, I
anticipate some appreciable relief to the Bank Rate at the season of
greatest stringency. Assuming that such a policy is practicable on
other grounds, let us try to compare its precise effect as compared
with the existing state of affairs.
9. Broadly speaking, surplus Government funds in India can at present
be released only by the sale of Council Bills in London. When these
bills are sold at a fairly high rate, the Government gain the premium
over and above 1s. 4d. and are in a position to put out at interest
funds in London. If the funds in India, instead of being released
through the encashment of Council Bills, are lent out there direct, the
interest obtained in India takes the place of the two sources of gain
distinguished above. In the first case money is first borrowed from
the London Money Market (by the Exchange Banks or otherwise) for the
purchase of Council Bills, and is then lent back again to that Market
by the Secretary of State. In the second case, instead of a double
transaction in London there is a single transaction in India. It might
be argued that the two methods come in the end to much the same thing;
that there can be no relief to the Money Market unless the Government
of India accept a lower rate of interest for sums lent out in India
than is the equivalent of what they would make if they were to sell
Council Bills at a premium and lend out the funds in England; and that
the second method involves no net addition to the resources available
in India. For the following reasons, however, I do not think that this
way of looking at the matter would be correct.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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