In the first place there would be an elimination of risk. If the
average loss from exchange on funds sent out to India for the busy
season works out at (say) 2 per cent per annum, the Banks, in order to
recompense themselves for the risk of fluctuations beyond the average,
would be able to make a difference of more than 2 per cent between
the current Indian and English rates. In the case of funds borrowed
in terms of rupees and repayable in terms of rupees, this element of
risk is absent; and the elimination of it provides a source of net
gain. If the effect of Government lending in India were to mitigate the
seasonal stringency there, some lowering of the normal upper limit of
fluctuation of exchange might result. In so far as this was the case,
in normal years the consequences would be outwardly similar to those
of the first alternative, discussed and rejected above, whilst the
Government would not have bound themselves by any undertaking capable
of turning out burdensome.
Secondly, the rate of interest which the Secretary of State can earn on
loans in London is appreciably lower, on account of the short period
for which he lends and the nature of the security he requires, than
the normal rate at which the Exchange Banks would raise their funds
there, and a good deal lower than what would be obtained by direct
lending in India. (It should be admitted, on the other hand, that
the practice of lending funds in India would probably involve some
sacrifice of perfect safety as compared with the present arrangements.)
And, thirdly, it is not clear that it might not sometimes be feasible
to lend out in India sums additional to those which would in fact be
released under the present system, so that there would be some net
addition to the resources available in India.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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