10. In addition, therefore, to the grounds for making loans in India
from the Paper Currency Reserve which I have given in earlier chapters,
I believe that it is in this direction that the best hope lies of a
remedy for the high level which the Indian Bank Rate commonly reaches
in the course of each busy season. I do not feel in a position to say
anything very decided as to the manner in which such loans could be
best made. But there is a presumption, I think, that, in the absence
of a State Bank, they must be made, mainly if not entirely, through
the Presidency Banks. And I believe that the Government would act
advisedly if, as a general rule, 5 or 5½ per cent were the highest
rate they ever chose to exact from the Banks. In financial matters of
this kind there is a danger lest Governments prove too jealous of the
profits of private persons. In a case where the co–operation of private
persons is necessary, they must be allowed a reasonable share of the
profits of the transaction. In their past relations with the Presidency
Banks in the matter of temporary loans, the Government of India have
sometimes seemed to attach more importance to preventing the Banks
from making any profit out of the loans than to any other aspect of
the transaction. I may repeat that the loans I contemplate are to be
for the busy season only, and that they should not be made until the
expectation of a normal or successful harvest is reasonably assured.
11. In the nature of a postscript to the above proposals, it may be
instructive to consider them in the light of the actual circumstances
of the season 1912–13. The peculiarity of this season from the point
of view of the Indian Money Market was the combination of a high Bank
Rate in India for a comparatively long period[126] with a relatively
low rate of exchange and only a moderate demand for Council Bills and
gold. At the end of 1912 the situation could have been described as
normal. The Bank Rate was at the somewhat high level usual at that
time of year; exchange was high (the minimum rate for the allotment of
Council Bills being 1s. 4–3/32d.); and the demand for Council Bills was
on a large scale. But from January to March, although the Bank Rate
remained at a high level and trade was active, the demand for Council
Bills fell away, slowly at first and rapidly during March, exchange
dropping _pari passu_ until, during the latter half of March, the
minimum rate at which Council Bills were allotted fell so low as 1s.
3–31/32d. The combination of so low a rate of exchange with an 8 per
cent Bank Rate at Bombay was very abnormal.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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