20. One minor indirect consequence of the existing system is worth
reference. Gold flows into the Currency Reserve when this is a cheaper
way of getting notes or rupees than by buying Council Bills or
Transfers (see Chapter V.). It flows out of the Currency Reserve when
sovereigns are wanted for circulation or for hoarding, or when this is
the cheapest way in which bullion dealers can get gold. There is reason
for thinking that a good deal flows out for the last reason, and it is
the occasion of this outflow which I wish to examine in a little more
detail. The Currency Department publishes figures which show the number
of sovereigns withdrawn from the Treasuries each month. It appears from
these that, while some are withdrawn in the winter months during the
busy season, when the demand for currency and for hoarding (since it is
then that the cultivators sell their crops and realise their savings
in coin) is at its height, there is in the summer also, when it is
most improbable that an extra supply is required for these purposes,
a steady and, in the aggregate, a heavy drain. A brief arithmetical
calculation provides what must, I think, be the explanation of this.
Since the price of bullion in London is (normally) £3:17:9. per oz.,
while the price of sovereigns is £3:17:10½, the bullion import
point of Indian exchange will be a little below the sovereign import
point. Thus when exchange is fairly high, an Indian purchaser of gold
finds it more profitable to buy drafts on London, purchase gold in
the bullion market and ship it to India, than to purchase sovereigns
from the Treasury at 1s. 4d.; but when exchange is low, the reverse is
the case and it is cheaper to get as much gold as the Treasury will
let you have at 1s. 4d. I do not know exactly where the dividing line
comes;[50] but when telegraphic transfers are at 1s. 4⅛d. it is
certainly more profitable to get gold bullion in London, and when they
are at 1s. 4-1/32d. it may pay to get it in India.
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