If the Government’s Reserve is held purely to support the currency,
then the maximum volume of rupees and notes, which could, so far as
one can anticipate, be spared from the circulation and tendered to the
Government for exchange, sets an upper limit to the necessary amount
of this Reserve. If, on the other hand, it is intended to act as a
banking reserve and to ensure India’s ability to meet her international
obligations at all times, then its upper limit is set by the probable
maximum amount of the adverse balance which could arise against India
for immediate payment.
18. I will begin by discussing this question on the first
hypothesis—that what the Government has been accumulating is intended
to serve as a currency reserve only—and will return later to the
problem of a reserve held for wider purposes, and of the possible
magnitude of the balance of international indebtedness against India.
19. To estimate the demand that the reserves might have to meet merely
in order to support the currency, the existing volume of currency is
what we chiefly require to know. For this sets, or suggests, a limit
to the maximum amount which can possibly be spared from the active
circulation.
Attempts to estimate the rupee circulation of India have been the
occasion of some very interesting calculations. For many years past
(since 1875) an annual census of rupees has been taken by examining in
each Government Treasury a bag containing 2000. This enabled Mr. F. C.
Harrison, when he was Comptroller of Currency, to apply the Jevonian
method very fully; and he was also able to corroborate his estimates by
reference to the numbers of the older issues, 1835 and 1840 (_e.g._),
actually withdrawn from circulation on the occasions when the Mint
recalled them. Mr. Harrison’s results were checked by the labours of
a later Comptroller of Currency, Mr. Adie, who applied to the same
material two alternative methods of much greater technical complexity
than Mr. Harrison’s.[66]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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