A quite different method of estimating the circulation has been
adopted by Mr. F. J. Atkinson.[67] His method is direct; and consists
in a calculation or estimate of the additions to the currency and
the losses from export, melting, etc., year by year, from 1831 when
the modern coinage first began. Some of the items in the calculation
are definitely known, but others, the amount annually melted, for
example, are almost entirely a matter of guesswork. The fact that his
calculations contain altogether a great number of separate guesses
does not prevent his final result from being a guess too. For the
period previous to the closing of the Mints some of his estimates for
the amount melted seem very low, and this may possibly explain why
his final results yield a much higher total for the circulation than
those of Mr. Harrison and Mr. Adie. In recent times, _i.e._ since the
closing of the Mints, and specially since the new equilibrium which
was reached in 1900, Mr. Atkinson’s method is much more satisfactory
than for earlier years and, since the doubtful items are in these later
years a far smaller proportion of the whole, much less likely to lead
us wrong. For the earlier years, therefore, I am inclined to prefer
Mr. Harrison’s conclusions; but I think they can be brought up to date
by a year–to–year method resembling Mr. Atkinson’s. The increase in
Mr. Atkinson’s estimate during the ’nineties is due to the fact that,
as his figures purport to exclude rupees in hoards, he must make large
allowance for the coins from this source then entering into circulation.
The actual figures are as follows:—
ESTIMATE OF THE RUPEE CURRENCY IN CRORES (10,000,000) OF RUPEES
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