A purely internal crisis of the first kind might require assistance
from the resources of Government, but would involve no claims on their
sterling resources specifically, as distinguished from their rupee
resources. The trouble would probably begin with a boom of the usual
type, heavy commitments on the part of the banks, large importations
of foreign goods, and (in the future) a good deal of internal company
promoting. If, early in the autumn, a serious failure of the monsoon
became apparent, a widespread suspension on the part of the numerous
bubble banks, which have been springing up lately all over India,[70]
would be a probable consequence. Indian depositors generally might take
alarm and hoard money in their own houses on a large scale. Exchange
Banks have such large deposits in India and so little cash there[71]
that they would probably require to import funds from London as fast as
possible. The Indian Joint Stock Banks, however, are now so important
that the part played by the Exchange Banks might not be adequate to
save the situation. The Government would then be called on to make
advances to the Presidency Banks. This has happened from time to time
in the past, the last occasion being in April 1898, when the Bank of
Bombay, whose bank rate was then at 13 per cent, asked the Government
for an advance of 25 lakhs.[72]
This raises the first question of policy—whether the Government should
help the bankers’ reserves on an occasion of internal crisis by making
rupee advances to them. But it is hardly relevant to the question of
the Government’s _sterling_ resources; and, unless the Government
Savings Banks were to be in trouble at the same time, it is not likely
that there would be any difficulty in helping the bankers, if it were
thought right to do so.
A crisis of the second kind, due to general depression or bad harvests,
in which India has to meet a heavy adverse balance in London,
provided that, as in 1907, it is not accompanied by internal banking
difficulties of the kind just described, causes, it is true, a drain on
the Government’s sterling resources through the necessity of providing
remittance on London, but only in proportion to the volume of notes and
rupees which are brought to the Government for encashment or in payment
of sterling drafts.
At first, therefore, in such a case, there is no question of the
Government’s using its reserves otherwise than as currency reserves;
and the banks will have plenty of notes and rupees with which to buy
the Government’s sterling drafts. Only if the depression is very
prolonged, and one bad harvest follows another, is the need likely to
arise for sterling advances from Government, otherwise than against a
corresponding face value of notes and rupees.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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