It is not very improbable, however, that in the future there might be
a general crisis of the third kind—a heavy adverse balance against
India, and an internal banking crisis at the same time. It is in these
circumstances that the most difficult question of policy arises. The
Indian Money Market would need to remit funds to London, but, on
account of the internal banking crisis and an outbreak of hoarding
amongst depositors, would not have even rupee resources with which to
do it. Consequently the Government’s offer to sell sterling drafts in
Calcutta, or to release gold from the Currency Reserve would not meet
the case. If general distrust of banking was widely spread, and notes,
gold, and rupees were being hoarded in the old–fashioned way on a large
scale, the banks would not be able to put their hands on sufficient
cash resources of any kind to enable them to pay for the Government’s
drafts on a scale adequate to their necessities. The position would be
that the Indian Money Market was on the verge of general insolvency
with the Presidency Bank Rates at (say) 12 per cent, and that the
Indian Government had (say) £40,000,000 sterling resources in hand with
demands on only a modest scale for the encashment of notes and rupees.
The Government would be vehemently urged to save the situation by
making sterling advances, not simply in exchange for notes or rupees,
but on some other non–monetary security.
24. We now have the possibilities before us. If in any of these sets
of circumstances the Government were faced with demands for advances
either in rupees or sterling, what line would it be proper to take?
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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