Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
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Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Influenza characteristically returns. An influenza period usually
comprises from three to five years, with one or two very mild epidemics
at the beginning which may frequently be overlooked, then of wide
pandemic spread, to be followed by endemic recurrences for as long as
two or three years. During these influenza periods the intervals between
waves are frequently so nearly equal or multiples of each other as to
force the question of a periodic law. Not only thus, but even on a
larger scale does the disease appear with a certain uniform regularity.
The great epidemics are separated frequently by intervals approximating
decades. Stallybrass calls attention to the epidemic years in England,
which are 1789–90, 1802–03, 1830–32, 1840–41, 1848–49 and 1851, 1854,
1869–70, 1879, 1890–91, 1898, and 1918–19. With the exception of 1854
all of these dates are around the end of a decennium.
Yet, again, in the successive waves of an individual epidemic, as has
been pointed out by Pearl, there is very roughly some periodicity.
Are these admittedly obvious phenomena fundamental features of the life
cycle of the influenza virus, or are they incidental, due to extrinsic
causes, changes in the pabulum, in the host as an individual, or in the
host as a community, or changes in climatic conditions? Is it a basic
feature upon which we must build our conception of the epidemiology of
epidemic influenza, or is it more a feature of chance? The evidence to
date is conflicting and incomplete. The answer lies in the future.
Periodicity in the acute infections is not a new subject. It has been
discussed in various other diseases, particularly in measles. For many
years epidemiologists in many parts of the world have reported the
observation of a periodicity in epidemics of measles. It is generally
regarded as an established fact that each locality suffers from epidemic
waves of this disease and that the period is somewhere about two years.
In certain relatively small localities in England where registration
statistics have been kept for many years the Health Officers count on an
epidemic every two years. In some places the epidemic is expected to
fall during the even years, while in others it occurs in the odd years.
Brownlee has been one of the foremost investigators in the periodicity
of influenza, but since his communication on that subject was very
brief, we take occasion to quote first from his article on the
periodicity of measles, thereby gaining a more comprehensive knowledge
of his theory, and at the same time becoming able to compare the
periodicity in the two diseases.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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