Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
measles can be properly employed as a standard in the measurement of the
virulence of the organism of the disease.”
Recognizing then the obvious disadvantages of the method, we will turn
to the work done on periodicity in influenza. We should call attention
at this point to the fact that the establishment of periodicity would
carry with it the assumption that the third of our three hypotheses
concerning the origin of influenza is the correct one. For example, the
July and autumn epidemic in England, as well as all occurring subsequent
to them, would be due to a virus or several viruses which have been
endemic in England since 1889, in fact since man has been in England,
and the epidemics and their recurrences would be due to increase in the
virulence of this local virus. The virus is distributed over the earth
and may become virulent periodically in many countries at the same time,
or if the periodicity is different on two continents the epidemics would
occur at different times.
Periodicity is not a new hypothesis. Hirsch denied any periodicity
distinct enough to be revealed by the comparatively crude statistical
methods of his time. Periodicity if present can only be revealed by
detailed and complicated mathematical procedures. Brownlee has
investigated the weekly number of deaths from influenza in London
between 1889 and 1896, and also up to the present time. He has compared
these with the weekly number of deaths from bronchitis and pneumonia in
London, the records of which have been available since 1870. By the
method of the periodogram he showed that there was a regular periodicity
of 33 weeks in deaths from influenza between the years 1889 and 1896,
but that in later years there was some considerable aberration. He
concluded that for some reason influenza periods tend to recur at
33-week intervals after the primary epidemic, and that the favorable
season for its recurrence is from January to the end of May. Should the
33d week fall in other than these winter months the epidemic may be mild
or even missed, appearing after another 33-week interval. Epidemic
influenza does not assume a form which causes any large number of deaths
until a bronchitic or pneumonic constitution has been established. The
fatal form is usually a disease of the winter or spring. He also found
that in the absence of influenza, bronchitis and pneumonia did not show
a 33-week periodicity, but when associated with influenza these
conditions also became periodic (33 weeks), and he assumes that this
change is definitely associated with the appearance of influenza.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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