Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Between 1876 and 1890 there was no tendency to the 33-week periodicity
with regard to bronchitis and pneumonia, but it was very marked between
1889 and 1896. During this epidemic period the deaths from pneumonia
precede those from influenza by one week and those of bronchitis precede
those of influenza by two weeks. The number of deaths from bronchitis
and pneumonia ascertained by this method of grouping is fully twice the
number obtained from influenza alone.
He believes that in these years, influenza appeared, on its epidemic
onset, first with bronchitic symptoms, later with pneumonic symptoms,
and lastly with those symptoms more definitely associated with influenza
proper. When the several sets of deaths are added together in 33-week
periods a very typical epidemic makes its appearance.
Brownlee finds that in the monthly statistics of Glasgow, Aberdeen,
Massachusetts, etc., there has been nothing differing essentially from
this phenomenon found in London.
Between 1876 and 1889 the annual curve for bronchitis and pneumonia
shows two maxima, one at the end of January and the second in the middle
of March. From March the decline in deaths from bronchitis is very
rapid. The disease re-appears around the beginning of October. During
the period 1889–96 the maximum number of deaths from bronchitis occurred
in the second week of January and the last week of February. Both of
these maxima are a fortnight before the maxima of the epidemics of
influenza. This suggests that the advent of influenza has brought a
change in the seasonal prevalence of bronchitis and supports the view
that the earlier portion of the influenza epidemic is associated with
bronchitic symptoms. The same phenomenon holds for pneumonia.
Brownlee was able to predict correctly the date of the recent 1920
epidemic. He did not attempt, however, to explain the short interval
between the summer and autumn, 1918, epidemics in England. He speaks of
the second as “aberrant.” In other words, it does not fall within his
classification. October is not a high respiratory disease month. The
epidemic should have been mild.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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