Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
“There is also evidence in the table of a small maximum at the
twenty-seventh week of the cycle in the earlier sub-period, and at the
twenty-ninth week in the later sub-period; slight movements of the
maxima forwards or backwards in the cycle over a number of years may,
perhaps, indicate a periodicity slightly greater or less than 33 weeks.
The twenty-ninth week of the cycle fell on the weeks ending May 18,
1918, and January 10, 1919. An examination of the figures in Dr. Hope’s
annual report for Liverpool for 1918 shows that there was a definite
wave of influenza reaching its crest on May 18th (Wave I), and there is
also a definite rise in the deaths from influenza, respiratory diseases,
and from all causes, making a small peak in the week ending January 3,
1919, but it is hidden by the enormous waves of October and March, so
that it only appears as an irregularity in the curve; but it was noted
at the time that influenza had not declined in Liverpool in January in
the way that it had in practically all other English towns. These two
waves do not appear to have played a large part in this country, but the
outbreaks in the Grand Fleet in May, 1918, and also in Spain, Glasgow,
etc., may, perhaps, be attributed to it. In the United States in
January, 1919, it would appear to have played a much larger part. In a
large number of American cities two waves are experienced, the first
being the October wave; the crest of the second wave sometimes fell in
March, as did one of the crests in this country, but in a number of
instances, _e.g._, Cambridge, Washington, San Francisco, New Orleans,
etc., it fell in January, or to be exact, in the thirty-first and
thirty-second weeks of the cycle. The close relationship of Liverpool
and Glasgow with the United States through the incoming stream of
American troops may perhaps account for the presence of this May wave in
these two towns, and not the rest of England.
CHART XII.
[Illustration:
Periodogram based on the weekly influenza deaths in Liverpool between
1890 and 1919. The curves are based on a thirty-three week
periodicity. (_Stallybrass._)
]
“The third maximum in the fourth week of the cycle is represented during
the late outbreak by the waves culminating in Liverpool, and also the
greater number of English towns on the weeks ending July 13 (Wave II)
and March 1 (Wave IV). This is a 33-week interval. This wave recurred at
an interval of 32–34 weeks in a large number of English towns.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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