Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Stallybrass has confirmed Brownlee’s 33-week periodicity and suggests an
explanation for the “aberrant” October epidemic. Using periodograms with
a 33-week basis, and plotting deaths from influenza and respiratory
diseases from January, 1890, through January, 1920, he finds that the
most definite 33-week periodicity is shown during the years 1890–99.
During this period there is one maximum, when all 33-week periods are
superimposed, which occurs at the seventh week of the cycle. Beginning
about 1899 a new maximum appears in the nineteenth week of the cycle,
which continues to recur until the culminating point is reached in the
week ending October 26, 1918. An additional 66 weeks carries the date
forward to the first week in February, 1920. The maximum at the seventh
week of the periodogram during the years 1899–1913 is greatly diminished
from that in 1890–98. The periodogram for 1914–1919 shows clearly both
maxima, that in the seventh and that in the nineteenth weeks.
We quote Stallybrass in some detail (see Chart XII):
“Dr. John Brownlee pointed out that from July 13th to March 1st (the
maxima of the summer wave of 1918 and of the spring wave of 1919) is 33
weeks, but that the wave having its crest in this country on November 2,
1918, does not fall into the sequence, leaving one to infer that there
were two strains of the influenzal virus in operation.
“I supplement his investigation by the weekly deaths occurring in
Liverpool during the period 1890–1919 that were ascribed to influenza
and to all respiratory diseases. Prior to 1890 there were no deaths
attributed to influenza for a number of years.
“Closely corresponding with Brownlee’s observations on London by far the
most definite periodicity is shown during the years 1890–1899, during
which period there is one well marked maximumly at the seventh week of
the cycle. During the period 1899–1913 a new maximum in the nineteenth
week of the cycle comes into play and continues to recur until the
culminating point is reached in the week ending October 26, 1918, a week
earlier than in most English towns (Wave III); a further 66 weeks
carries one forward to the first week in February of this year, as
Brownlee pointed out, and the outbreaks that are being reported in
Japan, Paris, Chicago, New York, etc., would show that this strain has
punctually reappeared.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account