Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
A. Giltay has compared the epidemics of 1890 and 1900 with that of 1918
as regards mortality, in Amsterdam. He has studied figures for seven
consecutive weeks in each of the three periods under observation and
found that the maximum figures for mortality were 61.5 in 1890, 41.2 in
1900, and 52.7 in 1918, but if these figures are compared with the
average mortality for the year it is found that the increase of
mortality as the result of influenza alone is 39.3 for 1890, 24.5 for
1900, and 40.3 for 1918. Thus the present epidemic is more severe than
that of 1890.
Many reported mortality figures are without value because they are
either death rates in selected groups such as those in a hospital, or,
because the report does not state the status of the individual. Thus,
Hoppe-Seyler stated at a meeting of the Kiel Medical Society that of 577
cases treated in the Municipal Hospital, nearly all of which were
severe, 28.9 per cent. died. This was reduced to 18 per cent. after
deducting the cases admitted in a moribund condition. Again, Rondopoulos
reports that the October wave in Greece resulted in a mortality of from
15 to 24 per cent, in different localities.
Just as current vital statistics are of little value in determining the
morbidity rate, so also they cannot be relied upon in obtaining fatality
percentages. In organizations such as the Army, where all cases are
reported, we may get some idea of the fatality rate. The deaths in the
United States Army have already been discussed. Marcus, of Stockholm,
reports that the military records showed that there had been 34,000
cases in the Swedish Army, with 444 deaths, making a mortality of 1.3
per cent, in that Army.
House surveys also give a fair idea of the mortality. Winslow and Rogers
conclude that the fatality rate was as a rule somewhere between two and
four deaths per 100 cases, the lower being more likely to be correct.
Reeks found in his house census that there had been 3.9 deaths per 100
cases in the autumn of 1918. Carnwath reports that Dr. Niven, in his
census, discovered that out of 1,108 cases in the spring and autumn of
1918 there were but 15 deaths, which would give a fatality rate of 1.3
per 100 cases.
Frost has found from his large survey that the ratio of deaths to total
cases of influenza varied in the localities surveyed from 3.1 per cent.
in New London as a high point to 2.8 per cent. in San Antonio, Texas.
There was some apparent relationship between fatality rate and
geographic distribution, the higher rates being in San Francisco on the
Pacific Coast, and in the localities studied on the north half of the
Atlantic Seaboard, and the lower rates being in the central and southern
states. The fatality rate on the Pacific Coast was 2.33, on the Atlantic
Seaboard 2.05, and in the last district 1.08 per cent.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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