Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
58.38 per cent. of all families were invaded in one
or the other or both.
41.62 per cent. of all families remained free from
influenza throughout both epidemics.
In this discussion of family incidence, as in our work on the incidence
among individuals, the question naturally arises as to the reliability
of our information and the accuracy of our results. We have shown the
close correspondence between our own results and those of Frost, done on
a vastly larger number of individuals. The information for families was
obtained from the same sources and from the same individuals. The
thoroughness with which the inspectors did their work is indicated by
the fact that in addition to the 2,117 families on which we base our
results, only the records of 194 families have been discarded for
various reasons. In discarding the family records we also discarded the
individual records and such are, therefore, for individuals above our
total of 10,000. One hundred and fifty-four of these were for families
whose homes were in the districts surveyed, but who were not at home at
the time of the first survey. These were omitted during the second
survey, irrespective of whether individuals were at home. In this group
are also included a few in which children were at home, but were unable
to give reliable information. Fifteen of the 194 families gave
insufficient information, and 25 refused to co-operate. The small number
in this last group speaks well for the efficiency and methods of the
inspectors. All families accepted for tabulation co-operated to the best
of their ability, and we believe that the records are as accurate as
this type of work may be made.
Dr. Niven, in the work referred to by Carnwath, made an inquiry covering
1,021 houses, with a population of 4,721. Five hundred and three
households or almost exactly one-half, were invaded in either the summer
1918, or the autumn-winter 1918 epidemic. This proportion of families is
quite similar to our own, but it must be pointed out that Niven was not
studying the same two epidemics that we are discussing. Two hundred and
sixty-six of his total households, or 26.05 per cent. were invaded in
the autumn epidemic.
Previous to the present time the author has been unable to find records
of investigators having used this method of studying influenza to any
appreciable extent. Certainly there has been nothing done on the subject
previous to the last pandemic. Since then Frost has studied, as
indicated in his report, family incidence to the extent of determining
the relationship to overcrowding and to economic status, and Niven has
studied family incidence with special reference to immunity.
Thomas Sydenham, speaking of the epidemic of 1675, says that: “No one
escaped them whatever might be his age or temperament, and they ran
through whole families at once.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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