Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
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Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
The manner of spread of epidemic influenza is constant in a primary
epidemic and the epidemic as a whole has certain features which render
it characteristic. The sporadic case has as a rule the same quite clear
cut clinical symptomatology, but it fails to manifest the one feature
most characteristic of epidemic influenza—a high degree of
contagiousness. Further, although the symptoms in themselves are
characteristic, there is no one pathognomonic sign by which one may say,
“this is a case of influenza,” and, finally other disease conditions
such as tonsillitis, frequently resemble it so much as to cause error in
diagnosis.
This becomes, then, one of the problems in the study of influenza
epidemiology. It is a matter of first importance to determine once and
for all whether true influenza is with us always, or whether it appears
only at the time of the great pandemics. Upon the answer to this
question more than upon any other one thing rests our choice of methods
of eradication. Any procedures of preventive medicine that may be
undertaken on the assumption that the source of pandemic influenza is to
be found in one or a few endemic foci, such as the one supposed to exist
in Turkestan, would fail utterly should the true condition be that of a
universal distribution of a relatively avirulent virus which from time
to time from some unknown cause assumes a highly increased virulence.
Before becoming involved in this very complicated question, let us
familiarize ourselves completely with the characteristics of the
pandemic and epidemic variety of the disease.
GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EARLY EPIDEMIC OUTBREAKS.
We have described the symptomatology of uncomplicated influenza. It is
rare that this clinical picture is seen alone during the height of an
epidemic. Complications, chiefly of the respiratory tract, as a rule
occur in such a large proportion of individuals that they very nearly
dominate the picture. Although caused by various microorganisms, all of
which appear to be secondary factors the results are so characteristic
that in the past, descriptions of influenza epidemics have usually been
descriptions of the complications of epidemic influenza. Most influenza
epidemics are complicated. But we do know from the experience of recent
years as well as from history that relatively uncomplicated epidemics of
influenza have occurred, and that when they do so occur a predominant
characteristic has been the extreme mildness.
It is a fundamental characteristic of pandemic influenza that early
cases in widespread epidemics, as well as in “pre-epidemic increases”
are very mild, with a minimum of respiratory complications and with
exceedingly low mortality. It is because we are better acquainted with
the more severe variety that, when these mild precursors appear we are
always in doubt for a time as to their true identity.
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