Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Dr. Hamer has visualized the present state of our knowledge of epidemic
influenza in a manner which can scarcely be improved upon. We,
therefore, quote him at length: “It seems to me that, during the last
thirty years or more, we have been making fairly steady uphill progress
along the road which constitutes the boundary between the county of
epidemiology and the county of bacteriology, and that we have at length
reached, at a height considerably above sea level, the foot of the
mountain, on the very top of which lies hidden the secret of an
‘epidemic constitution,’ and now we are face to face with a parting of
ways. Straight ahead is the frowning height, its summit in cloud. On the
right hand stretches away a fine road skirting the base of the mountain.
Along this road we have recently seen Dr. Brownlee whirled away in his
new car ‘periodogram.’ We are all hoping to hear more from him, but as
he is still insisting upon the primary, if not the exclusive, importance
of continuous variation in the virulence of the germ, we have to realize
that for the time Dr. Brownlee’s road is going down-hill. On the other
hand, on the left, there swerves away, through the territory of the old
epidemiology, another fine road, which has been explored more
particularly by believers in ‘skiey influences.’ So far as it has been
traced this road is as flat as flat can be, but of course there is
always the possibility that after a while it will begin to rise, as it
skirts round the mountain, and leads to a good vantage point from which
to start climbing. At the risk, however, of being laughed at, I venture
to bring under notice the very rough and at first sight unpromising
ground directly in front of us. Along this can be seen two obscurely
marked sheep tracks proceeding at any rate onwards and upwards. One
diverges slightly towards the left hand and it has been followed at
various times by De Schweinitz and others, naturalists bent on
collecting ‘ultravisible viruses;’ the second track, directed rather
more to the right, has been explored by Reiner, Müller, Massini,
Penfold, and others, workers at the problem of discontinuous variation
by ‘mutation.’ As a matter of fact I have reason to believe that two
travellers, each of whom follows one of these tracks, will keep in sight
of and after a while will find that they are approaching one another,
and will ultimately meet at a small and retired upland farm; then after
passing some dogs and following the track until clear of all stone
walls, they will come right out in open ground on the face of the
mountain and can start straight up the steep. But it must here be
pointed out that there remains to be considered a fourth method of
approach to the mountain, the most direct of all; but that is by
aeroplane and is of course only open to those trained in metaphysics and
statistical methods. Investigators thus equipped are able to rise in the
air, to survey with careful scrutiny the whole of the ground beneath
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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