Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
them and to make the best use of details of information obtained by
scouting parties below. It is to be hoped that at no very distant date a
survey of the top of the mountain will thus become an accomplished fact.
Meantime, those who cannot fly may find useful employment in examining
the track beyond the farm. There is the chance there of picking up facts
relating to such questions as the ‘parasites associated with a
parasite,’ symbiosis, and the like; take, for example, a suggestion made
fourteen or fifteen years ago that the influenza organism may at one
time live in association with Pfeiffer’s bacillus, at another with the
Micrococcus catarrhalis, and so on; or the throat distemper organism may
be yoked now with the diphtheria bacillus and now with the Streptococcus
conglomeratus. (Is that, I wonder, now to be regarded as a concept or as
an occurrence or happening?)”
At best our knowledge of the cause and manner of spread of influenza is
fragmentary and insufficient. Attempts to outline a system of control
and prevention based upon present concepts are met with many
discouragements. The next pandemic will not be prevented. The disease
will surely return. If the interval be sufficiently long it may find us
quite as unprepared as we were in 1918. Discouraging as the outlook is
there are many bright points upon which we must base our hopes for
future results.
The difficulties are many: First the _diagnosis_ of influenza is
difficult either in the individual case or in the form of a mild
epidemic. Even in 1918 the identification was often not definitely made
until after weeks had elapsed. Second, we know little concerning the
_mode of transmission_ of the disease. We speak of “respiratory
infection.” We believe that the transmission is by a mechanism similar
to that for measles, but we have never experimentally transmitted either
disease. The _short incubation period_ places us at a great
disadvantage. Were the interval between the occurrence of the first case
and the development of additional cases as long as it is in measles, the
problem of isolation and quarantine would be simplified. As in measles
the disease is probably _very early infectious_, presumably before acute
symptoms develop. The majority of cases of influenza are _ambulatory_.
Many individuals do not take to their beds, but continue about their
work, spreading the disease wherever they go.
Again, we are ignorant of the _period of infectiousness_. Dr. Meredith
Davies has made observations indicating that a patient becomes
non-infectious within one week after the temperature has become normal.
How many influenza patients remain isolated throughout this period?
A _carrier state_ probably exists and plays a most significant part in
the spread.
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