Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study — John Shaqi
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
Winslow and Rogers studied the relation of the pneumonia death rate from
1901 to 1916 to the influenza death rate of 1918 in 40 large cities of
the United States and found a distinct correlation. The cities which
have been characterized by a high pneumonia rate in the past are
precisely the cities which suffered most severally in the 1918 outbreak.
This is not due especially to virulent types of pneumonia organisms in
certain sections of the country because they found this same high
correlation between total death rates and influenza death rates, in the
same cities.
They believe that these high correlations may be the result of
weaknesses in the population due to high incidences of organic diseases
and tuberculosis in earlier years, or more probably that the correlation
is an indirect one, due to the relation between each of the factors
studied and one or more underlying conditions affecting both, such as
age distribution of the population, race distribution, or social and
economic conditions in the various cities studied. Or, finally, it may
be that the high rate from tuberculosis and organic disease in 1916 was
due to these latter factors, while the high incidence of influenza was
due chiefly to proximity to the original focus of infection. None of
these explanations are considered entirely satisfactory.
It is important to call attention to the fact that the American
observers quoted have been studying the death rate from influenza as it
is revealed in the increase of death rate from all causes, whereas
Leichtenstern and Wutzdorff, and Greenwood, in his studies in the Royal
Air Force have concerned themselves with _morbidity_. The comparison of
morbidity and mortality cannot be easily made as we will show when
discussing these two subjects, so we cannot conclude that the work of
Pearl and of Winslow and Rogers is at variance with the other work
quoted. The mortality curves form another characteristic of the local
spread of influenza in a community.
It is characteristic of influenza that the curve of deaths does not fall
as rapidly as does the curve for influenza cases. Thus in morbidity
curves we may expect to find a symmetrical curve for a primary epidemic,
but the mortality is rarely if ever symmetrical, the curve rising
rapidly and falling very much more slowly.
_Morbidity curves in 1920 recurrences._—The curves of influenza
incidence in the recurrence of 1920 have varied in different localities,
but in certain communities where the record has been carefully reported
the epidemic appears to be characterized by a symmetrical evolution and
usually a lower death rate as compared with 1918. The curve of incidence
in the State of Massachusetts in January, February and March, 1920, is
symmetrical, if anything falling away more rapidly than it ascends, and
the duration is at least ten weeks. The crest of the influenza wave in
Massachusetts was reached on February 4th, 5th and 6th. The peak is
recorded as being in the week of February 7th.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account