Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
_Spread in recurrences._—As a rule the manner of spread of a secondary
epidemic following the primary pandemic wave is quite different. At a
longer or shorter interval following the first spread the disease breaks
out anew in one locality or another, sometimes simultaneously in widely
separated districts. Sometimes we can distinguish a direction of spread
in the relatively small community affected, it frequently being observed
that the disease will start up in a large city which has experienced the
illness during the first pandemic, and from there will spread to small
nearby localities which may have remained free until that time. Again,
any clearcut direction of spread may be entirely lacking. It is rare
indeed that an epidemic following another by a short interval will
follow a definite line over an entire country or continent. Such an
example is, however, to be found in the epidemic of 1833, which traveled
over Europe from Russia, spreading to the west and the south and
following practically the identical path that it had taken in 1830. Even
so it was not as widespread, for while the epidemic of 1830 had covered
the entire earth, America appears to have escaped the second epidemic.
These disseminated and independent outbreaks are believed to arise from
endemic foci in which the virus has been deposited during the progress
of its first spread and in which the germ has survived until it has
acquired once again exalted virulence.
Usually these endemic outbreaks show in their local configuration, a
secondary type of wave. That this is not always the case we have already
indicated. The epidemic of 1732–1733 was a recurrence of that of
1729–1730. The epidemic of 1782 had as its source the epidemic of the
years 1780–1781. The epidemic of 1788 recurred until 1800, and was quite
possibly associated with those of 1802, 1803 and 1805–1806. That of 1830
recurred in 1831–1832. Next we have in 1833 the true pandemic
originating in Russia. Recurrences of the epidemic of 1836–1837 were
found in 1838 and in 1841. Those spreads which occurred in 1847 and 1848
found successors in the year 1851. In 1890 the influenza outbreaks were
as a rule single or isolated and occurred in only a few places of
Europe, particularly in Lisbon, Nürnberg, Paris, Copenhagen, Edinburgh,
Riga, London, etc. It is reported that there was an unusually severe
local outbreak in Japan in August, 1890. In 1891 no general direction of
spread was manifested, yet in heavily populated areas, or states rich in
lines of communication, especially those of Europe and North America,
one could frequently trace some definite direction followed by the
disease within these relatively small territories.
A. Netter made the following observation at that time: “La Grippe a fait
des explosions simultanées ou successives, et on n’a pu en aucune façon
subordonner ces différents foyers comme cela avait été possible en
1889–90. Il parait y avoir eu des reveils de l’épidémie sur divers
points.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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