Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study — John Shaqi
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic studyVaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
History
Influenza : $b An epidemiologic study
Vaughan, Warren T. (Warren Taylor)
Influenza
The history of influenza can justly be divided into two phases, the
first ancient, and the second modern. The latter period begins with the
1889 pandemic. By that time the science of bacteriology had altered our
concepts of the etiology of disease and epidemiologists had begun to
avail themselves of statistical methods of analysis. For the purposes of
this paper, therefore, consideration will be given chiefly to the
epidemic of 1889, and a summary of earlier epidemics will be made merely
to refresh our minds concerning the antiquity of the disease and the
periods of its occurrence. References to the earlier epidemics will be
made more particularly in the special discussions later, where points of
similarity or difference will be brought out. Further than that it is
unnecessary to go in the history of the disease, for the several
excellent monographs of 1890 to 1900 tell the historical story in a
manner that could scarcely be improved upon.
The great antiquity of epidemic influenza is a fact which I think may be
admitted in spite of some who hesitate to accept it because of lack of
convincing descriptive evidence. Some believe that the epidemic of the
year 412 B.C., described by Hippocrates and by Livy, was an epidemic of
influenza. Some have suggested that the epidemic described by Thucydides
was the same disease. Parkes remarks that the epidemic pervading the
Athenian Army in Sicily in 415 B.C., recorded by Diodorus Siculus, has
been supposed to have been influenza. Finkler, in referring to a report
by Diodorus of a pestilence occurring in 395 B.C., which broke out in
the Greek Army at the siege of Syracuse, and which killed off the
soldiers murderously, says that this could not have been influenza. He
regards as sufficient argument the fact that the mortality was high.
After the epidemic of 1918, one is more inclined to believe that the
epidemic in Sicily may well have been true influenza. We must remember
that previous to the last few pandemics the stories have been
fragmentary in character and were told, not by physicians, but chiefly
by the historians of the time, men who have desired to impress their
readers with some idea of the horrible ravages of the disease, and who
have doubtless in some instances transmitted the impression of monstrous
mortality rates. The early historians were much given to figures of
speech, many of which were very telling in conveying the impression
desired. Finally, the writers of the middle ages and of earlier times
had little or no statistical material on which to base their
conclusions. I have no doubt that a historian who during the 1918
epidemic of influenza might have limited his observations entirely to
the disease as it occurred at Camp Sherman, Ohio, and who saw 125 robust
soldiers dying each day, would have truly written that the disease
killed off the soldiers murderously. A further statistical argument in
favor of considering the epidemic among the Greek soldiers as quite
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