Is Mars habitable? A critical examination of Professor Percival Lowell's book "Mars and its canals," with an alternative explanationWallace, Alfred Russel
Science
Is Mars habitable? A critical examination of Professor Percival Lowell's book "Mars and its canals," with an alternative explanation
Wallace, Alfred Russel
Lowell, Percival, 1855-1916. Mars and its canals; Mars (Planet)
The last part of this paper, indicated under pars. 4 and 5, is the most
elaborate, occupying eight pages, and it contains much that seems
uncertain, if not erroneous. In particular, it seems very unlikely that
under a clear sky over the whole earth we should only receive at the
sea-level 0.23 of the solar rays which the earth intercepts (p. 167).
These data largely depend on observations made in California and other
parts of the southern United States, where the lower atmosphere is
exceptionally dust-laden. Till we have similar observations made in the
tropical forest-regions, which cover so large an area, and where the
atmosphere is purified by frequent rains, and also on the prairies and
the great oceans, we cannot trust these very local observations for
general conclusions affecting the whole earth. Later, in the same
article (p. 170), Mr. Lowell says: "Clouds transmit approximately 20 per
cent. of the heat reaching them: a clear sky at sea-level 60 per cent.
As the sky is half the time cloudy the mean transmission is 35 per
cent." These statements seem incompatible with that quoted above.
The figure he uses in his calculations for the actual albedo of the
earth, 0.75, is also not only improbable, but almost self-contradictory,
because the albedo of cloud is 0.72, and that of the great cloud-covered
planet, Jupiter, is given by Lowell as 0.75, while Zollner made it only
0.62. Again, Lowell gives Venus an albedo of 0.92, while Zollner made it
only 0.50 and Mr. Gore 0.65. This shows the extreme uncertainty of these
estimates, while the fact that both Venus and Jupiter are wholly
cloud-covered, while we are only half-covered, renders it almost
certain that our albedo is far less than Mr. Lowell makes it. It is
evident that mathematical calculations founded upon such uncertain data
cannot yield trustworthy results. But this is by no means the only case
in which the data employed in this paper are of uncertain value.
Everywhere we meet with figures of somewhat doubtful accuracy. Here we
have somebody's 'estimate' quoted, there another person's 'observation,'
and these are adopted without further remark and used in the various
calculations leading to the result above quoted. It requires a practised
mathematician, and one fully acquainted with the extensive literature of
this subject, to examine these various data, and track them through the
maze of formulae and figures so as to determine to what extent they
affect the final result.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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