The day after Joe had lunch with Mo, he bought 1500 shares of SPM at
$4.75. The next morning, the price was $5.75 bid / $5.94 asked. A press
release announced that an experimental extraction technique had yielded
results that were higher than expected. Tests were continuing with
larger samples. Joe jumped on the ask and bought 1500 more shares.
"Damn it, Batman! We've got a live one." The price spiked to $6.75
before profit taking knocked it down. It closed at $6.25 after heavy
trading.
For several months the price continued to move up, as larger samples
processed with the new technique yielded consistently higher results.
He bought 1500 more shares at $10.50. When the price rose over $11,
Claude shocked the online bulls by selling most of his shares. "But
Claude," Joe wrote, "if the extraction method is as cheap as most
people think it will be, shares will go to $100, easy." ($450,000 to
him.)
"Don't worry, mon ami," Claude answered. "I still have a position if
that comes to be. I have my original investment returned with a profit.
And my heart keeps the normal beat."
Joe thought about buying more but held back. One detail bothered him.
The CEO, a thirty year mining pro, claimed to have a degree from an
obscure college in the Northwest. Several investors had tried
unsuccessfully to verify this. Joe e-mailed the company to inquire but
received no answer. Kate had an academic friend in Seattle who checked
and was unable to find a record of graduation. The closest any one
could come was to determine that he had gone to school there for at
least three years. The college had gone through many changes over the
years. Degree requirements were different. Records had been moved many
times. They failed to pin it down.
Joe didn't care whether or not someone had a degree. It is what one can
do that matters. But he cared if someone lied about it; lying is a bad
sign. SPM stock broke above $14 and began to correct. The short sellers
piled on, selling borrowed stock, driving the price down in order to
frighten investors into dumping their shares. The price held in the $10
range for a few weeks and then quickly fell to $8 and then $7. The
short position grew larger by the day. The bulls argued that all those
borrowed shares had to be bought back sooner or later and that the
upcoming positive mining audit would trigger a massive short squeeze
that would quickly put the price over $20. The company continued to
release good news.
When the audit report was finally released, it verified only the
original assay results, a year old, and made no mention of the
extraction yields. The company made bland assurances about ongoing
efforts to improve the extraction technique, but there were no hard
numbers and they were running out of development capital.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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