All the same, extraordinary runs do occur at all games. In 1813, a
well-known betting man of the name of Ogden laid one thousand guineas
to one guinea, that calling seven as the main, a player would not throw
that number ten times successively from the dice-box. Seven was thrown
nine times in direct sequence! Mr. Ogden then offered four hundred and
seventy guineas to be let off the bet, but the thrower refused. He took
the box again but threw only twice more--nine--so that Mr. Ogden just
saved his thousand guineas.
In a game of chance, the oftener the same combination has occurred in
succession the nearer we are to the certainty that it will not recur at
the next coup. It would almost appear, in fact, as if there existed an
instant, prescribed by some unknown law, at which the chances become
mature, and after which they begin to tend again towards equalisation.
This is the secret of the pass and the counter-pass, and also of the
strange persistence which certain numbers at roulette sometimes show
in recurring--they are merely making up for lost time. At the end of a
year all the numbers on a roulette board would be found to have come up
about the same number of times--provided, of course, that the wheel is
kept in proper working order, a state of affairs which is assured at
Monaco by scrupulous daily inspection.
The considerations set forth above apply more especially to games like
roulette and trente-et-quarante played at public tables, where all
players have an equal chance against the bank, and where the personal
element, which is so important in private play, is to a large extent
eliminated. It is at public tables that the real gambler finds his
best chance. There, whilst having a fair field and no favour, he may,
if lucky, win very large sums with the certainty of being immediately
paid; and he is not exposed to various unfavourable influences, which
tell against men of his disposition when gambling amongst acquaintances
and even friends. Wherever a number of careless, inattentive people
possessed of money chance to be assembled, a few wary, cool, and shrewd
men will be found, who know how to conceal real caution and design
under apparent inattention and gaiety of manner; who push their luck
when fortune smiles and refrain when she changes her disposition; and
who have calculated the chances and are thoroughly master of every game
where judgment is required.
Occasionally men of this stamp have been known to have accumulated a
fortune, more often a respectable competency, at play. If they had
been interrogated as to the exact means by which they had made their
success, they would, had they been desirous of speaking the truth, have
replied in the words of the wife of the Maréchal d'Ancre, who, when
she was asked what charm she had made use of to fascinate the mind of
the queen, "The charm," she replied, "which superior abilities always
exercise over weaker minds."
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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