Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
This table is interpreted thus: bettors are willing to lay the same
odds against _Rosicrucian_ as would be the true mathematical odds
against drawing a white ball out of a bag containing two white and
seven black balls; but no one is willing to back the horse at this
rate; on the other hand, higher odds are not offered against him. Hence
it is presumable that his chance is somewhat less than that above
indicated. Again, bettors are willing to lay the same odds against
_Pace_ as might fairly be laid against drawing one white ball out of
a bag of seven, one only of which is white; but backers of the horse
consider that they ought to get the same odds as might be fairly laid
against drawing the white ball when an additional black ball had been
put into the bag. As respects _Green Sleeve_ and _Blue Gown_, bettors
are willing to lay the odds which there would be, respectively, against
drawing a white ball out of a bag containing—(1) eleven balls, one only
of which is white, and (2) one hundred and seven balls, seven only of
which are white. Now, the three horses, _Rosicrucian_, _Green Sleeve_,
and _Blue Gown_, all belong to Sir Joseph Hawley, so that the odds
about the three are referred to in the last statement of the list just
given. And since none of the offers against the three horses have been
taken, we may expect the odds actually taken about ‘Sir Joseph Hawley’s
lot’ to be more favourable than those obtained by summing up the three
former in the manner we have already examined. It will be found that
the resulting odds (offered) against Sir J. Hawley’s lot—estimated in
this way—should be, as nearly as possible, 132 to 80. We find, however,
that the odds _taken_ are 180 to 80. Hence, we learn that the offers
against some or all of the three horses are considerably short of what
backers require; or else that some person has been induced to offer far
heavier odds against Sir J. Hawley’s lot than are justified by the fair
odds against his horses, severally.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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