Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Light Science for Leisure Hours: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects, natural phenomena, &c.
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
I have heard it asked why a horse is said to be a favourite, though the
odds may be against him. This is very easily explained. Let us take as
an illustration the case of a race in which four horses are engaged to
run. If all these horses had an equal chance of winning, it is very
clear that the case would correspond to that of a bag containing four
balls of different colours; since, in this case, we should have an
equal chance of drawing a ball of any assigned colour. Now, the odds
against drawing a particular ball would clearly be 3 to 1. This, then,
should be the betting against each of the three horses. If any one of
the horses has less odds offered against him, he is _a favourite_.
There may be more than one of the four horses thus distinguished; and,
in that case, the horse against which the least odds are offered is
_the first favourite_. Let us suppose there are two favourites, and
that the odds against the leading favourite are 3 to 2, those against
the other 2 to 1, and those against the best non-favourite 4 to 1; and
let us compare the chances of the four horses. I have not named any
odds against the fourth, because, if the odds against all the horses
but one are given, the just odds against that one are determinable,
as we shall see immediately. The chance of the leading favourite
corresponds to the chance of drawing a ball out of a bag in which are
three black and two white balls, _five_ in all; that of the next to
the chance of drawing a ball out of a bag in which are two black and
one white ball, _three_ in all; that of the third, to the chance of
drawing a ball out of a bag in which are four black balls and one white
one, _five_ in all. We take, then, the least number containing both
five and three—that is, _fifteen_; and then the number of white balls,
corresponding to the chances of the three horses, are respectively six,
five, and three, or fourteen in all; leaving only _one_ to represent
the chance of the fourth horse (against which the odds are therefore
14 to 1). Hence the chances of the four horses are respectively as the
numbers _six_, _five_, _three_ and _one_.
I have spoken above of the published odds. The statements made in the
daily papers commonly refer to wagers actually made, and therefore
the uninitiated might suppose that everyone who tried would be able
to obtain the same odds. This is not the case. The wagers which are
laid between practised betting-men afford very little indication of
the prices which would be forced (so to speak) upon an inexperienced
bettor. Book-makers—that is, men who make a series of bets upon
several or all of the horses engaged in a race—naturally seek to give
less favourable terms than the known chances of the different horses
engaged would suffice to warrant. As they cannot offer such terms to
the initiated, they offer them-and in general success—fully—to the
inexperienced.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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