But this is not enough. Since there cannot really be vicarious causes,
we must define the effect (_p_) more strictly, and examine the cases to
find whether there may not be varieties of _p_, with each of which one
of the apparent causes is correlated: A with _p_^{1} B with _p_^{11}, X
with _p_^{111}. Or, again, it may be that none of the recognised
antecedents is effective: as we here depend solely on observation, the
true conditions may be so recondite and disguised by other phenomena as
to have escaped our scrutiny. This may happen even when we suppose that
the chief condition has been isolated: the drinking of foul water was
long believed to cause dysentery, because it was a frequent antecedent;
whilst observation had overlooked the bacillus, which was the
indispensable condition.
Again, though we have assumed that, in the instances supposed above,
immediate sequence is observable, yet in many cases it may not be so, if
we rely only on the canon of Agreement; if instances cannot be obtained
by experiment, and we have to depend on observation. The phenomena may
then be so mixed together that A and _p_ seem to be merely concomitant;
so that, though connection of some sort may be rendered highly probable,
we may not be able to say which is cause and which is effect. We must
then try (as Bain says) to trace the expenditure of energy: if _p_ gains
when A loses, the course of events if from A to _p_.
Moreover, where succession cannot be traced, the method of Agreement may
point to a connection between two or more facts (perhaps as co-effects
of a remote cause) where direct causation seems to be out of the
question: e.g., that Negroes, though of different tribes, different
localities, customs, etc., are prognathous, woolly-haired and
dolichocephalic.
The Method of Agreement, then, cannot by itself prove causation. Its
chief use (as Mill says) is to suggest hypotheses as to the cause; which
must then be used (if possible) experimentally to try if it produces the
given effect. A bacillus, for example, being always found with a certain
disease, is probably the chief condition of it: give it to a guinea-pig,
and observe whether the disease appears in that animal.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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