Malthus, T. R. (Thomas Robert), 1766-1834; Malthusianism
Malthus, however, was able to prove some solid conclusions from the
census of 1801. It had shown, for example, as regards marriages, that
the proportion of them to the whole numbers of the people was, in 1801,
as 1 to 123⅕, a smaller proportion than anywhere except in Norway and
Switzerland,[396] and the more likely to be true, because Hardwicke’s
Marriage Act had made registration of marriages more careful than of
burials and baptisms. In the early part of the eighteenth century, the
pessimist, Dr. Short, had estimated the proportion (with much
probability) as 1 to 115; and it would appear, therefore, that at
neither end of the century were the marriages in a high proportion to
the numbers, or had population increased at its highest rate. Again,
Malthus thinks it proved by the census that, since population has as a
matter of fact increased in England in spite of a diminished rate of
marriages, the increase has been at cost of the mortality, the fewer
marriages being partly a cause, partly a consequence, of the fewer
deaths of the later years.[397] Those that married late might have
consoled themselves with the reflection that they were lessening not the
numbers but the mortality of the nation. It was no doubt difficult to
estimate the extent to which such causes operated, or the degree in
which the national health had been improved. In any case the census
guides us better than the registers,[398] for it carries us beyond the
inferred numbers to numbers actually counted out at a given time.
Neither the census nor the registers can be rightly interpreted without
a knowledge of the social condition, government, and history of the
people concerned. In undeveloped countries, like America and Russia, or
in any old countries after special mortality, a large proportion of
births may be a good sign; “but in the average state of a well-peopled
territory there cannot well be a worse sign than a large proportion of
births, nor can there well be a better sign than a small proportion.”
Sir Francis d’Ivernois had very justly observed that, if the various
states of Europe published annually an exact account of their
population, noting carefully in a second column the exact age at which
the children die, this second column would show the comparative goodness
of the governments, and the comparative happiness of their subjects;—a
simple arithmetical statement might then be more conclusive than the
cleverest argument. Malthus assents, but adds that “we should need to
attend less to the column giving the number of children born, than to
the one giving the number which reached manhood, and this number will
almost invariably be the greatest where the proportion of the births to
the whole population is the least.”[399] Tried by this standard, which
is much more truly the central doctrine of Malthus than the ratios, our
own country was even then better than all, save two, European countries.
Tried by it to-day, we have still a good place. Though no great European
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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