Malthus, T. R. (Thomas Robert), 1766-1834; Malthusianism
countries, except Austro-Hungary and Germany, have had more _marriages_,
in the twenty years from 1861 to 1880, not only these, but Holland,
Spain, and Italy, have had more _births_, and all of them except
Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have had more _deaths_, in proportion to
their numbers.[400]
One great advantage of the census is, that it enables the registrars to
calculate from their own data, with certain sure limits of told-out
numbers behind and before them. “When the registers contain all the
births and deaths, and there are the means [given by the census] of
setting out from a known population, it is obviously the same as an
actual enumeration.”[401] Malthus suggested in 1803 that the experiment
of 1801 should be repeated every ten years, and that registrars’ reports
should be made every year.[402] This has been done; and, if both have
been accurate, then the registers of the intervening years, on the basis
of the decennial enumeration, ought to make us able to calculate the
numbers for any intervening year. Accordingly, the population of England
in 1881, as calculated from the births and deaths, was little more than
one-sixth of a million different from the numbers as actually counted
over on the night of the 4th of April in that year.[403] The growth in
the last decade, 1871 to 1881, was higher than in any since
1831–41;[404] the births were more and the deaths fewer than usual.
Another London has been added to our numbers in ten years.[405]
This gives no sure ground, however, for prediction. To suppose a
country’s rate of increase permanent is hardly less fallacious than to
suppose an invariable order of births and deaths over the world
generally. Even if we are beyond the time when we need to make any
allowance for increasing accuracy and fulness, and if we may assume that
no given census has any units to sweep into its net that through their
fear or an official’s carelessness escaped its predecessor, still we
cannot take the rate of increase from one census to another as a sure
indication of the future. With some qualifications the words of Malthus
apply to us in 1881 quite as accurately as to our fathers in 1811: “This
is a rate of increase which in the nature of things cannot be permanent.
It has been occasioned by the stimulus of a greatly increased demand for
labour, combined with a greatly increased power of production, both in
agriculture and manufactures. These are the two elements which form the
most effective encouragement to a rapid increase of population. What has
taken place is a striking illustration of the principle of population,
and a proof that, in spite of great towns, manufacturing occupations,
and the gradually acquired habits of an opulent and luxuriant people, if
the resources of a country will admit of a rapid increase, and if these
resources are so advantageously distributed as to occasion a constantly
increasing demand for labour, the population will not fail to keep pace
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