Malthus, T. R. (Thomas Robert), 1766-1834; Malthusianism
He begins by observing (1) that _all living things_, of whatever kind,
when furnished with their proper nourishment tend to increase in a
geometrical ratio, whether (as wheat) by multiplying sixfold in one
year, or (as sheep) by doubling their numbers in two years, tending to
fill the earth, the one in fourteen, the other in seventy-six years. But
(2) as a matter of fact they do not so increase, and the reason is
either man’s want of will or man’s want of power to provide them their
proper soil or pasture. The actual rate of increase is extremely slow,
while the power of increase is prodigious. (3) Physically man is as the
rest; and if we ask what is the factor of his geometrical increase, we
can only tell it, as in the case of wheat and sheep, by experience. (4)
In the case of other living beings, where there are most room and food
there is greatest increase. These conditions are best fulfilled for man
in the United States, where the distribution of wealth is better than in
other equally fertile places, and the greater number share the
advantages. The American census shows for the three decades between 1790
and 1820 a rate of increase that would double the numbers in 22⅓, 22½,
and 23⁷⁄₁₂ years respectively, after we deduct as immigrants ten
thousand on an average every year.
A striking indirect confirmation of this view of the American increase
was supplied to Malthus[130] by Joshua Milne, the author of the
_Treatise on Annuities_. His calculations were founded on the new
Swedish table of mortality. This table had been drawn up from the
registers of the first five years of the century, years of unusual
healthiness; and might therefore be presumed to represent the normal
condition of a new and healthy country like the United States better
than the old table drawn up from the years before sanitary reform and
vaccination. Milne took the Swedish table as his guide, and one million
of people as his unit of measurement; he calculated in what proportions
the component individuals of the million must belong to childhood,
youth, mature life, and old age, in order that by the principles of the
Swedish table the million might double itself by natural increase in
twenty-five years; and he arrived at a distribution so like that given
by the American census, that he was bound to conclude the American rate
of increase to be at the least very like one that doubles a population
in twenty-five years. But the Swedish law of mortality could not be
exactly true of the United States, which are healthier as a whole than
Sweden even in Sweden’s best years.[131] The United States themselves
are not the very healthiest and wealthiest and happiest country
conceivable; and their increase is therefore not the fastest
conceivable. If the observed fact of increase is the best proof of the
capacity for increase, the observed presence of checks leads to an _a
fortiori_ reasoning, whereby we infer the capacity for a greater
increase than any actually observed.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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