Mental Philosophy: Including the Intellect, Sensibilities, and WillHaven, Joseph
Philosophy
Mental Philosophy: Including the Intellect, Sensibilities, and Will
Haven, Joseph
Psychology
_Probability of Hypothesis._--The probability of a hypothesis is in
proportion to the number of facts or phenomena, in the given case,
which it will satisfactorily explain, in other words, account for.
Of several hypotheses, that is the most probable which will account
for the greatest number of the given phenomena--those which, if the
hypothesis be true, ought to fall under it as their law. If it accounts
for all the phenomena in the case, it is generally regarded as having
established its claim to certainty. So Whewell maintains. This,
however, is not exactly the case. The hypothesis can be verified only
by showing that the facts or phenomena in the case cannot possibly be
accounted for on any _other_ supposition, or result from any _other_
cause; not simply that they can be accounted for, or can result from
this. This is well stated by Mill in his System of Philosophy. The
hypothesis of the undulating movement of a subtle and all-pervading
ether will account for many of the known phenomena of light; but it has
never been shown, and in the nature of the case never can be, probably,
that no _other_ hypothesis possible or supposable will also account for
them.
_Use of Hypotheses._--As to the _use_ of hypotheses in science,
Reid's remarks are altogether too sweeping, and quite incorrect. It
is not true that hypotheses lead to no valuable result in philosophy.
Almost all discoveries were at first hypotheses, suppositions, lucky
guesses, if you please to call them so. The Copernican theory that
the earth revolves on its axis was a mere hypothesis at the outset.
Kepler's theory of the elliptical orbits of the planets was such;
he made and abandoned nineteen false ones before he hit the right.
This discovery led to another--that planets describe equal areas in
equal times. Newton never framed hypotheses, if we may believe him.
But his own grand discovery of the law of gravity as the central
force of the system, depends for one of its steps of evidence on his
previous discovery that the force of attraction varies as the inverse
square of the distance, and this was suggested by him at first as a
mere hypothesis; he was able to verify it only by calling in the aid
of Kepler's discovery of equal areas in equal times, which latter,
as already stated, was itself the result of hypothesis. Had it not
been for one hypothesis of Newton, verified by the results of another
hypothesis of Kepler Newton could never have made his own discovery.
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