Mr. Belloc objects to "The outline of history" — John Shaqi
Mr. Belloc objects to "The outline of history"Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Religion
Mr. Belloc objects to "The outline of history"
Wells, H. G. (Herbert George)
Belloc, Hilaire, 1870-1953; Wells, H. G. (Herbert George), 1866-1946. Outline of history
“(1) The advantageous differences making for survival are not of
one kind in any particular case, but of an indefinitely large
number (_e.g._, climate getting colder needs not only warmer
coat, but power to digest new food, protective colouring so
as not to show dark against snow, etc., an indefinitely large
number of qualities). Now the chance of _all_ being combined
(and co-ordinated) in a single individual, _without design_,
_accidentally_, let alone of their thus appearing in many
individuals _accidentally and without design_, approximates to
zero.”
This is, so to speak, the short uncompleted form of the first argument.
It is expanded later to a copiousness too great to admit of quotation.
This expansion carries the statement right to its conclusion, that
only an individual possessing all the possible differences that
are advantageous at any particular time can survive. Otherwise its
differences have no “survival value.” They may be advantages, but
not sufficient advantages to score an advantage. I know this sounds
tipsy, but there it is in black and white in Mr. Belloc’s wonderful
Article V for any one to consult. It follows plainly that, except for a
miracle, every species must be exterminated in every generation. I can
see no other way out of it. No individual, he declares, can survive
without the full set of advantageous differences, and the chance of any
individual having the full set of advantageous differences, he declares
after some abstruse verbal gestures, is zero. There is Mr. Belloc with
his unfailing logic, his clear mathematical demonstration, and all
the rest of it. There is the lucid Latin mind shining above my Nordic
fog! Yet the previous generation got along without any of the set! And
species do survive.
Did Mr. Belloc imagine he was saying something else? It is not for me
to speculate. Helping out an antagonist in a controversy is apt to be
resented. He has, I think, simply got into a muddle here, and he is
not sufficiently self-critical to get out of it again. So he tries
to muddle through. It is quite reasonable to say that when a species
is under stress of changing conditions it is usual for the need for
adaptation to be felt upon a number of points and not simply upon
one, and that, since every advantage counts, the individuals with the
greatest combination of advantageous differences have the best chances.
But that does not alter the fact that even a single advantage is an
advantage. What happens in nature is not an extermination of all who
are not completely in the fashion of the new differences. That seems
to be Mr. Belloc’s idea, but it is a wrong idea. What does happen is
a diminution in each generation of the number of the disadvantaged
in relation to the number of the advantaged. That is quite another
affair. Mr. Belloc has not grasped this. His third _a priori_ argument
shows as much even more plainly than his first, and to that I shall
presently come.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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