Of course, it must not be forgotten that such conclusions are always
obtained in accordance with the following formula: _things have been so
until now, therefore we expect that they will be so in the future_. In
every such case, therefore, there is the possibility of error. Thus far,
whenever an expectation was not realized, it was almost always possible
to find an "explanation" for the error. Either the inclusion of the
special case in the general concept proved to be inadmissible because
some of its other characteristics were absent, or the accepted
characterization of the concept required an improvement (limitation or
extension). In other words, one way or another, there was a discrepancy
between the concept and the experience, and, as a rule, sooner or later
it becomes possible for us to arrive at a better adjustment between
them.
This general truth has often been interpreted to mean that in the end
such an adjustment must of necessity always be possible to reach,
without exception; in other words, that absolutely every part of an
experience can be demonstrated as conditioned by natural law. Evidently
such an assertion far exceeds the demonstrable. And even the usual
conclusion cannot be applied here, that because it has happened so in
the past it will happen so in the future also. For the part of our
experiences that we can grasp by natural laws is infinitesimally small
in comparison with that in which our knowledge still fails us entirely.
I will mention only the uncertainty in predicting the weather for only
one day ahead. Moreover, when we consider that until now only the
_easiest_ problems had been solved, and naturally so, because they were
most accessible to the means at hand, then we can readily see that
experience offers no basis whatever for such a conclusion. We must not
say, therefore, that because we have been able so far to explain all
experiences by natural laws it will be so in the future likewise. For we
are far from being able to explain all experiences. In fact, it is only
a very small part that we have begun to investigate. We are as little
justified in saying that we have explained all the problems of our
experience that have been subjected to scientific investigation. We have
by no means explained all of them. Every science, even mathematics,
teems with unsolved problems. So we must resign ourselves to the present
status of human knowledge and ability, and may at best express the
_hope_ founded upon previous experience, that we shall be able to solve
more and more of the incalculable number of problems of our experience
without indulging in any illusions as to the perfection of this work.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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