Changes in the methods, though not in the principles, of naval warfare
are in these days so rapid and often so sudden that one or two topics
have emerged into public prominence even since the present volume was in
type. I desire therefore to take this opportunity of adding a few
supplementary remarks on them. The first, and possibly in the long run
the most far-reaching of these topics, is that of aviation, which I have
only mentioned incidentally in the text. That aviation is still in its
infancy is a truism. But to forecast the scope and direction of its
evolution is as yet impossible. For the moment it may perhaps be said
that its offensive capacity--its capacity, that is, to determine or even
materially to affect the larger issues of naval warfare--is
inconsiderable. I say nothing of the future, whether immediate or
remote. Any day may witness developments which will give entirely new
aspects to the whole problem. In the meanwhile the chief functions of
aircraft in war will probably be, for some time to come, those of
scouting, observation, and the collection and transmission of
intelligence not obtainable by any other means. Offensive functions of a
more direct and formidable character will doubtless be developed in
time, and may be developed soon; but as I am no prophet I cannot attempt
to forecast the direction of the evolution, to determine its limits, or
to indicate its probable effects on the methods of naval warfare as
expounded in the following pages. I will, however, advance two
propositions which will not, I believe, be gainsaid by competent
authorities. They are true for the moment, though how long they may
remain true I do not know. One is that no aircraft yet constructed can
take or keep the air in all conditions of weather. The number of days in
the year in which it can do so in safety can only be represented by the
formula 365-_x_, in which _x_ is as yet an unknown quantity, though it
is no doubt a quantity which will diminish as the art of aviation is
developed. The other is that there is as yet no known method of
navigating an aircraft with accuracy and precision out of sight of land.
The air-currents by which it is affected are imperceptible to those
embarked, variable and indeterminate in their force and direction, and
quite incapable of being charted beforehand. In these conditions an
airman who sought to steer by compass alone, say, from Bermuda to New
York, might perchance find himself either at Halifax, on the one hand,
or at Charleston on the other.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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