Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and OpportunitiesTeller, Edward
Science
Our Nuclear Future: Facts, Dangers and Opportunities
Teller, Edward
Nuclear energy -- Popular works; Nuclear weapons; Radioactivity -- Physiological effect
The argument is essentially the same as the one concerning the danger to
the individual. The tests are responsible for 0.001 or 0.002 roentgens
per year to the human reproductive cells. This is equivalent to
approximately 0.05 roentgen per generation. Most of this radiation is
due to gamma rays from Cs¹³⁷ which has been deposited on the ground or
absorbed in the body. The number of mutations caused by this radiation
is to be compared with the number of natural mutations.
Some of the natural mutations are caused by heat and chemicals. Some are
due to background radiation, to cosmic rays or to gamma and beta rays
emitted by natural radioactive substances in or near our bodies. Our
best estimate is that 10 per cent of the natural mutations are due to
the background radiation.
Over a period of one generation the background radiation dosage to the
human reproductive cells is approximately five roentgens. Assuming a
simple proportionality between dosage and the number of mutations, it
follows that fifty roentgens would be required to induce a number of
mutations equal to the total number of natural mutations (from
background radiation and all other causes). That is, fifty roentgens is
a “doubling dose.”
The atomic tests are therefore increasing the number of mutations by
about 0.05 ÷ 50, which is 0.1 per cent. This kind of increase in the
rate of mutations would certainly not seem to be a serious reason for
worry.
Actually the number of mutations from the tests is very small even
compared to geographical and altitude variations in the natural
radioactivity. The Inca empire existed for many generations in the high
country of Peru. The people of Tibet have been exposed for generation
after generation to the greater cosmic ray intensity which bombards them
through a thinner layer of atmosphere. These people have been exposed to
much greater additional radiation than anything which is caused by
atomic tests. Yet genetic differences have not been noticed in the human
race or for that matter in any other living species in Peru or Tibet. We
are certainly talking here about questions which may strike hard on some
individuals but which from the point of view of the community or race
are not serious.
It has been often repeated that all mutations due to radiation are
harmful. There is every reason to believe that mutations due to
radiation are not different in kind from other mutations. Should we then
seriously believe that all mutations are harmful? That most of them are
is admitted. If all of them were indeed always harmful, we must deny the
simplest facts of evolution.
There will be some who maintain that the human race is not capable of
improvement. Such an argument is irrefutable. It is also unreasonable.
What cannot be further improved is perfect, and not many people will
maintain that our species can claim perfection.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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