Aeronautics -- Flights; Arctic regions; North Pole
It was the business of the meteorologists to determine which was the
best day in the month of May for the start. With “Fram’s” experiences
before us the prospects of finding a good starting day were not very
rosy. In May, 1896, when “Fram” was about halfway between Spitzbergen
and the Pole, there were twenty-five days with rainfall, and only three
days at the beginning of the month had clear weather. Should May, 1925,
turn out just as bad as May, 1896, the polar flight would take place
under very risky meteorological conditions.
What resources were now at our disposal to determine what kind of
weather was expected? First were the telegrams from the stations in
the neighborhood, indicating the kind of weather which was approaching.
This system is commonly used by all meteorological institutions which
have something to do with weather reports, and it was therefore
only natural that this should be made use of for the polar flight.
One can, however, know beforehand that to make weather forecasts at
Spitzbergen is much more difficult than at other places where it
has been tried before. For instance, Southern Europe is covered by
a network of telegraph stations which can report the approaching
weather. But in Spitzbergen it is not so easy. The network of European
stations certainly give reports of every condition approaching from
the south, but no telegraphic weather reports can be obtained from the
west, north, or east. There are, therefore, many situations where the
meteorologists, notwithstanding all the aid, can give no reply to the
question: “What will the weather be like to-morrow?”
And that is the case in Spitzbergen. But the polar flight had to be
undertaken from there, and had to extend more than 1,000 kilometers
above unknown regions in unknown weather conditions! How could any one
guarantee good weather for the whole distance?
I know that many meteorologists would reply to such a question that
this is beyond science. To prophesy what the weather will be like near
the Pole is pure guesswork. As now and again stress has been put upon
this view in the press, may I be permitted to defend the foolhardiness
I showed by venturing to tackle this problem? I admit that it is very
often quite impossible to say what the weather will be like on the way
from Spitzbergen to the Pole, and still less possible to predict how it
is likely to turn out in a day or two’s time. But meteorology allows
us to determine by indirect conclusions whether the prospects of good
weather are bright or whether the situation is too risky. That these
weather forecasts are based on very weak foundations, and therefore can
easily turn out wrong, was known by the airmen from the first hour.
Still they preferred to follow the advice science could give, even if
it was often vaguely formulated and given with all sorts of provisos.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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