If, therefore, the formula, ‘peace without annexations and indemnities,’ were actually adopted, Germany, by withdrawing from Belgium and France to the west, Russian Poland to the east, and Montenegro, Albania, Roumania, and Serbia to the southeast, would renounce her first element of advantage, represented by the value of the invaded territories—that is, about 155 billion francs. From this, however, must be deducted the tens of billions’ worth of plunder carried out of the invaded territories during these three years, consisting either of products already used up by the Germans, or of material, metals, and securities which have already been removed to Germany. Her renunciation of this first element of advantage would therefore be rendered relatively incomplete were the formula adopted. We should note also that there are excellent reasons why Germany’s renunciation could never apply in reality to the territories invaded by her to the southeast—_to Serbia, at all events_. The six elements of German advantage forming the second group of our table are infinitely more important to Berlin than the first element—which is in any case partially assured by the ‘no indemnity’ formula, as we have seen. Although they are less directly apparent to the Allies, the six elements of the second group are nevertheless _real_, for they depend on incontrovertible military, economic, and geographic facts. Now these six elements, big with possibilities for the future, depend entirely on the covert but certain seizure which the war has enabled Germany to make of her own allies. But this seizure was possible only as a result of Serbia’s destruction. Serbia, therefore, formed the geographic bulkhead which Germany had to batter down before her influence could predominate over Bulgaria and Turkey. The destruction of Serbia was the _sine qua non_ of the establishment of Central Pan-Germany, which assures the Kaiser of the six principal elements of advantage from the war. Moreover, it is undeniable that the essential prop of Central Pan-Germany has been furnished by the Berlin-Bagdad Railroad, of which the most important branch, that of Belgrade-Nish-Pirot, runs across Serbia. Now, that Germany is fighting for the Berlin-Bagdad line, Count Karoly, an ally of Berlin, admitted, speaking on December 12, 1916, in the Hungarian Chamber. (See _Le Journal de Genève_, December 30, 1916.) To sum up, then, German victory and the fruition of her most important war-advantages depend directly on the maintenance of Central Pan-Germany, made up of Germany, Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Turkey. Now this maintenance is based on two prime conditions. 1. The continuance of Serbia’s state of subjection to Austro-Germany.