a certain time, can, and constantly does, lead to the true prediction
that, when I come back to my room in half an hour's time, I shall
observe a fire of a certain size still burning. We make predictions
on such grounds, I think, every day and all day long. And hence
unless such beliefs as that what I observe when I see a fire burning
_does_ exist, _are_ true, we certainly have no reason to suppose that
beliefs which lead to true predictions are generally true. And hence
on this hypothesis also it remains true: that, unless some of the
contents which I observe _other_ than my own perceptions, thoughts, and
feelings, do exist, I cannot have the slightest reason for supposing
that the existence of certain perceptions of my own is generally
connected with that of certain perceptions, thoughts, or feelings in
any other person.
I conclude therefore that, unless some of the observed data which I
have called sense-contents _do_ exist, my own observations cannot give
me the slightest reason for believing that anybody else has ever had
any particular perception, thought, or feeling. And, having arrived
so far towards an answer to my first question: How do we know that
any other persons exist? I may now point out that precisely the same
answer must be given to my second question: How do we know that _any_
particular kind of thing exists, other than ourselves, our perceptions,
thoughts, and feelings, and what we directly perceive? There is a view
concerning what exists, which deserves, I think, much more respect than
it generally receives from philosophers nowadays. The view I mean is
the view that material objects, such as they are conceived by physical
science, do really exist. It is held by some persons (and Reid is among
them) that we _do_ know of the existence, not only of other persons,
but also of the movements of matter in space. It is held that we do
know, with considerable precision, what kinds of movements of matter
generally precede my perception, when I have a particular perception.
It is held, for instance, that when I perceive a red and blue book side
by side on a shelf, at a certain distance from me, there have existed,
between two material objects, which may be called books, and another
kind of material object, which may be called my eyes, certain wave-like
motions of a material medium; that there have existed two different
sets of waves, of which the one is connected with my perception of red
and the other with my perception of blue; and that the relative heights
and breadths of the two different sets of waves, and the relative
velocity of their movements are very exactly known. It is held that
some men have a vast amount of very precise information about the
existence of objects of this kind; and I think the view that this is
so deserves a great deal of respect. But what I wish now to point out
is that no one's observation of his own perceptions, thoughts and
feelings, can, by itself, give him the slightest reason for believing
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