A few technical terms are useful. Suppose we want to establish
inductively that there is some probability in favour of the
generalisation: “Everything that has the property _F_ also has the
property _f_”. We will call this generalisation _g_. Suppose we have
observed a number of instances in which _F_ and _f_ go together, and
no instances to the contrary. These instances may have other common
properties as well; the sum-total of their common properties is called
the _total positive analogy_, and the sum-total of their _known_ common
qualities is called the _known positive analogy_. The properties
belonging to some but not to all of the instances in question are
called the _negative analogy_: all of them constitute the _total
negative analogy_, all those that are _known_ constitute the _known
negative analogy_. To strengthen an induction, we want to diminish the
positive analogy to the utmost possible extent; this, according to Mr.
Keynes, is why numerous instances are useful.
On “pure” induction, where we rely solely upon number of instances,
without _knowing_ how they affect the analogy, Mr. Keynes concludes
(_Treatise in Probability_, p. 236):
“We have shown that if each of the instances necessarily follows
from the generalisation, then each additional instance increases the
probability of the generalisation, so long as the new instance could
not have been predicted with certainty from a knowledge of the former
instances.... The common notion, that each successive verification of
a doubtful principle strengthens it, is formally proved, therefore
without any appeal to conceptions of law or of causality. _But we have
not proved_ that this probability approaches certainty as a limit, or
even that our conclusion becomes more likely than not, as the number of
verifications or instances is indefinitely increased.”
It is obvious that induction is not much use unless, with suitable
care, its conclusions can be rendered more likely to be true than
false. This problem therefore necessarily occupies Mr. Keynes.
It is found that an induction will approach certainty as a limit if two
conditions are fulfilled:
(1) If the generalisation is false, the probability of its being true
in a new instance when it has been found to be true in a certain
number of instances, however great that number may be, falls short of
certainty by a finite amount.
(2) There is a finite _a priori_ probability in favour of our
generalisation.
Mr. Keynes uses “finite” here in a special sense. He holds that not all
probabilities are numerically measurable; a “finite” probability is one
which exceeds some numerically measurable probability however small.
_E.g._ our generalisation has a finite _a priori_ probability if it is
less unlikely than throwing heads a billion times running.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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