The difficulty is, however, that there is no easily discoverable way of
estimating the _a priori_ probability of a generalisation. In examining
this question, Mr. Keynes is led to a very interesting postulate
which, if true, will, he thinks, give the required finite _a priori_
probability. His postulate as he gives it is not quite correct, but I
shall give his form first, and then the necessary modification.
Mr. Keynes supposes that the qualities of objects cohere in groups,
so that the number of _independent_ qualities is much less than the
total number of qualities. We may conceive this after the analogy
of biological species: a cat has a number of distinctive qualities
which are found in all cats, a dog has a number of other distinctive
qualities which are found in all dogs. The method of induction can, he
says, be justified if we assume “that the objects in the field, over
which our generalisations extend, do not have an infinite number of
independent qualities; that, in other words, their characteristics,
however numerous, cohere together in groups of invariable connection,
which are finite in number” (p. 256). Again (p. 258): “As a biological
foundation for Analogy, therefore, we seem to need some such assumption
as that the amount of variety in the universe is limited in such a way
that there is no one object so complex that its qualities fall into an
infinite number of independent groups ... or rather that none of the
objects about which we generalise are as complex as this; or at least
that, though some objects may be infinitely complex, we sometimes have
a finite probability that an object about which we seek to generalise
is not infinitely complex.”
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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