This postulate is called the “principle of limitation of variety”. Mr.
Keynes again finds that it is needed in attempts to establish laws
by statistics; if he is right, it is needed for all our scientific
knowledge outside pure mathematics. Jean Nicod pointed out that it is
not quite sufficiently stringent. We need, according to Mr. Keynes,
a finite probability that the object in question has only a finite
number of independent qualities; but what we really need is a finite
probability that the number of its independent qualities is less than
some assigned finite number. This is a very different thing, as may be
seen by the following illustration. Suppose there is some number of
which we know only that it is finite; it is infinitely improbable that
it will be less than a million, or a billion, or any other assigned
finite number, because, whatever such number we take, the number
of smaller numbers is finite and the number of greater numbers is
infinite. Nicod requires us to assume that there is a finite number _n_
such that there is a finite probability that the number of independent
qualities of our object is less than _n_. This is a much stronger
assumption than Mr. Keynes’s, which is merely that the number of
independent qualities is finite. It is the stronger assumption which is
needed to justify induction.
This result is very interesting and very important. It is remarkable
that it is in line with the trend of modern science. Eddington has
pointed out that there is a certain finite number which is fundamental
in the universe, namely the number of electrons. According to the
quantum theory, it would seem that the number of possible arrangements
of electrons may well also be finite, since they cannot move in all
possible orbits, but only in such as make the action in one complete
revolution conform to the quantum principle. If all this is true, the
principle of limitation of variety may well also be true. We cannot,
however, arrive at a proof of our principle in this way, because
physics uses induction, and is therefore presumably invalid unless
the principle is true. What we can say, in a general way, is that
the principle does not refute itself, but, on the contrary, leads to
results which confirm it. To this extent, the trend of modern science
may be regarded as increasing the plausibility of the principle.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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